Eight-term incumbent Rep. Bob Goodlatte holds a 2-1 edge over challenger Sam Rasoul in the Sixth District congressional race, according to a recent SurveyUSA poll.
In a survey of 900 adults in the Sixth, 59 percent said they would vote for Goodlatte, R-Roanoke, if the election were held today, compared to 30 percent for Rasoul, D-Botetourt County, according to SurveyUSA. The survey was conducted Monday through Wednesday.
“Overall, we’re extremely pleased with [the results],” Goodlatte campaign Chairman Dave Rexrode said Friday. “To be up almost 30 percent at this point is good news.”
Rasoul discounted the poll’s significance. “It’s only August, we’re still in the summer, so we really don’t place so much merit on these polls,” Rasoul said. “It’s, I think, way too early to determine. [Poll results] don’t do much, as far as really reflecting real sentiments of constituents of the Sixth District because they haven’t gotten a good feel for what the differences are between candidates.”
Based in Verona, N.J., SurveyUSA is a non-partisan research firm that conducts polls for some of America’s largest media companies. Results for the Sixth were compiled by calling random households throughout the district. An automated voice inquired, “If the election for U.S. House of Representatives were today, [whom] would you vote for?”
Rasoul has some questions about the poll’s methodology. “If you do look at the methodology, even the way polls are done right now, I think it’s a little bit archaic in the sense that normal people do not have phones, in other words, landlines,” Rasoul said. “They have cellular phones, so those people, of course, tend to be more working-class individuals and tend to be more Democratic, to generalize. Younger people do not generally have landlines. I’m just speaking in broad generalizations. I’m not really worried about the poll or how they conducted the poll.”
SurveyUSA CEO Jay H. Leve brushed aside Rasoul’s concerns. Just 21 percent of Americans have cell phones, he said. “Of course, eventually, pollsters will adopt a different methodology,” Leve said. “Survey USA is the most accurate pollster in the United States,” according to pollster ratings, Leve said.
Rasoul’s worries, Leve said, were a reflection of the candidate’s dissatisfaction with the poll results. “The content is not close,” Leve said. “The Republican candidate leads decisively. … What it sounds like to me is that the Democrat is making noise about our method because he is losing.”
Rexrode saw Goodlatte’s sweep of demographic groups as proof that the method remains viable. More than half of respondents favored Goodlatte in 17 of 22 categories. Rasoul led among blacks, liberals, pro-choice and Democratic respondents, along with those who said they almost never attend church.
“Bob pretty much won every demographic,” Rexrode said. “He won men, he won women, he is winning independents and almost 20 percent of the Democrats. He’s running 42 percent of African-Americans. He wins every age group. … That just shows Bob’s strength in all groups … and that the majority of people appreciate the good job he’s doing in Congress on their behalf.”
Rasoul was undaunted. The congressional race remains far from voters’ minds, he said. “If people are thinking about anything right now, it’s about the presidential race and then the Senate,” Rasoul said, “and eventually they will get to the congressional race. Right now, it’s all about setting up that infrastructure and getting the message out.”
Another factor: The Sixth District tilts heavily Republican, which has helped feed Goodlatte’s run of eight straight election victories. Democrats have challenged him just twice since 1996, and Goodlatte won more than two-thirds of the vote both times.
The Sixth covers all or part of Roanoke, Augusta, Rockbridge, Bath, Rockingham, Shenandoah, Highland, Botetourt and Amherst counties.
